Kam Raslan’s Talking Edge

(Reprinted from The Edge – Options pullout, 14 November 2016 issue)

Err, am I imagining things? Did Donald Trump just win the US presidential election? But he is a dangerous idiot.
Wannabe Canadian immigrant

It was supposed to be a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton, but instead, Donald Trump won the US presidential election. This is a huge disaster. Asian and US futures markets crashed even before the final result was called and the Mexican peso dropped to an all-time low. The Americans have decided to follow English Brexiters and leave the realities of global finance and geopolitics for a dreamland where they imagine that every problem can be solved by closing borders and building walls – as if that can make heavy industry leave emerging markets and return to America. They will be miffed when their dreams don’t come true. I think it’s safe to say that Trump will be a disaster as the US president, which will be damaging for the whole world, and he probably won’t be re-elected in four years’ time, if he doesn’t get impeached along the way. But four years is a long time and a lot can happen, much of which can never be reversed. So who might be the winners over the next four years?

China. What else can I say? They must be cracking open the champagne in the Forbidden City. China can resume flexing its muscles in Asia and will continue picking up acolytes who will be concerned over Trump’s repeated statements about not protecting allies. Who will dare complain if China decides to add, say, 10 more dashes to its Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea?

Vladimir Putin must be happy because Trump loves Vladimir Putin. But sometimes, I wonder why the world ever worries about Russia. It has a large army and a massive nuclear stockpile but its economy is smaller than Italy’s and almost entirely dependent on oil and gas exports. Russia’s antiquated and undiversified economy will be swallowed up by China and yet, Russia will maintain the ability to cause serious mischief. But Russia’s internet disinformation campaign has scored a huge success. Kremlin-sponsored internet trolls have seeded the web with scary conspiracy theories that are all blatantly untrue (the New World Order does not exist) and yet, their stories have become the new reality, igniting the imaginations of not just millions of credulous Americans but the newly elected president himself. Trump’s Twitter feed is full of stories that have come straight out of Russia’s internet troll factories before being mixed with some good ‘ol American crazy. Trump seems to be incapable of criticising Putin at all. I wonder why that is? We’ll l probably find out at some point.

England’s Brexiters must be imagining that Britain can now cut a trade deal with the US that will offset the upcoming loss of the European market. They can dream on.

And finally, the people who will be most joyful over Trump’s victory will be those who post picture of cute cats – because we’re really going to need those pictures over the next four years – and anybody who shares Trump’s penchant for New York real estate, private jets and huge financial debts.

I read somewhere that Malaysia’s northern states were once part of Thailand. Is that true?
Anonymous

How many of us remember the old custom of bunga mas? It was a small tree made from gold, surrounded by other finely worked golden objects, sent by many Malay states to the King of Siam every few years. These objects were sent as tributes and to indicate that he was their ultimate ruler, even if any actual control was slight and unappreciated. The northern states stopped the practice when they were taken over by Britain in 1909. Bunga mas was also sent to the Emperor of China at various times, although I can’t remember when, and I can’t even remember which book I’d need to look up to retrieve the info.

The various Malay states of the Peninsula Malaya and Sumatra had shifting alliances and hatreds but they were all small and vulnerable to the modern and powerful countries, such as Siam, China, Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Britain and Japan. And that’s not even mentioning local powers or the Mongols, who launched an attack on Java in 1293. So, naturally, the Malay states sought protection. A long time ago, the British were actually a very clever people (pre-Brexit, that is) and they offered the best possible deal, which was very wisely accepted. They not only offered protection and the stability needed for making huge amounts of money from tin mining, but they also gave a notional concept of independence. No Malay state needed to send bunga mas anymore and the British did not interfere in religion and customs. The best way to have control is by making it seem like you don’t have it, but actually, you do.

For some strange reason, the image of the bunga mas popped into my head when I heard and read about the prime minister’s recent glorious trip to China. Several amazing deals were struck for huge amounts of money, including the building of a new railway line. This railway line will be incredibly expensive to realise but that can only be because it’s going to be so amazingly good. I saw a photo of many Malaysian VIPs who looked very pleased with themselves over the deals they had struck. It will be years before the money has to be paid back, so why shouldn’t they be happy?

The railway line will go to the east coast, which is where our finest gold craftsmen reside. I wonder if they will be making beautiful bunga mas soon.

Reprinted with the kind permission of